WTO: Trade will rebound, but will slow down by the end of the year

The World Trade Organization (wto) said on Friday that global trade in goods has rebounded in the third quarter after the new crown pneumonia epidemic is blocked, but it is expected to slow down by the end of 2020.

The WTO said its merchandise trade barometer has risen to 100.7 points from a record low of 84.5 points in August, driven by a surge in export orders. The index over 100 indicates higher than the trend growth rate.

The WTO said: "The latest data shows that with the closure measures eased, trade rebounded strongly in the third quarter, but as pent-up demand is exhausted and inventory replenishment is completed, growth may slow in the fourth quarter."

The World Trade Organization stated that the prospects for trade are uncertain, and the second wave of COVID-19 infection has caused the re-blockade of Europe and North America, which may trigger another round of business closures.

The WTO's "Commodity Trade Barometer" is a comprehensive data, in which the export orders and agricultural raw material trade index are higher than the medium-term trend, the container shipping and automobile commodity index are higher than the trend, and the air cargo and electronic component trade index are lower than the medium-term trend.

The indicator is designed to predict turning points and measure the momentum of global trade growth within a few months, although the WTO says that uncertainty means it may not be so reliable.

The agency pointed out that higher frequency data showed that the recovery of international flights and container shipping stagnated in October, but copper futures prices and analysis of news reports reflected an improvement in economic sentiment. After the latter announced an effective vaccine in early November, his attitude has improved.