WTO warns of slowing trade growth



         The World Trade Organization warned that due to disruptions in key sectors of the global economy, its indicators show that trade growth is slowing.


   This member of the trade group from most of the world’s producing countries emphasized that its "commodity trade barometer" began to rebound strongly in the summer of 2020 after a decline in the outbreak, and there has since been a sharp decline. The World Trade Organization reported that its indicator fell by more than 10 points between August and October 2021. At the close of the market during this period, it was only slightly below the baseline value of the index, indicating that the indicator has returned to the current trend consistent with recent trends. Location.


         The World Trade Organization wrote in the report that released the indicator: "Recent supply shocks, including port congestion caused by the surge in import demand in the first half of the year, and the production interruption of a wide range of traded commodities such as automobiles and semiconductors, have all contributed to the decline in this indicator. "After a sharp rebound from the initial shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, global merchandise trade is slowing, production and supply disruptions in key industries inhibited growth, while import demand is cooling."


   The analysis of the association also said that the current demand for traded goods seems to be slowing down, and the decline in export orders further drags down this indicator. However, they pointed out that cooling in import demand may help alleviate port congestion, but they expect that as long as container throughput remains at or near record levels, the backlog and delays are unlikely to be eliminated.


   According to the WTO, the "Goods Trade Barometer" is a comprehensive leading indicator that provides real-time information on the trajectory of commodity trade related to recent trends. The latest reading was 99.5, while the last reading published in August was 110.4, which now appears to be the peak of the indicator.


   All sub-indices of the barometer have been declining recently, reflecting the general loss of momentum in global merchandise trade. The largest decline was in the auto product index (85.9). Due to the shortage of semiconductors, global auto production was affected, and the auto product index fell below the trend line. The electronic component index (99.6) has also fallen from above the trend to the trend.


   Container shipping (100.3) and raw materials (100.0) indexes are also close to the recent trend. Only the air freight index (106.1) remained above the trend as shippers seek to replace sea freight.


   In early October, the WTO revised its overall trade forecast, calling for a 10.8% increase in global merchandise trade in 2021, higher than the 8.0% forecast in March. However, they pointed out that trade growth is slowing in the second half of 2021, prompting them to forecast a 4.7% growth in 2022.